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French economic growth undercut by war in Iran, national statistics office says

France

The French economy will grow by only 0.2% in the first half of the year instead of the 0.3% forecast, the Insee national statistics agency said Tuesday, citing higher inflation linked to the war in Iran. Inflation will surpass 2% in coming months, rising sharply from the 1.1% rate seen in February. 

The ministry of economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty (known as Bercy) seen on July 26, 2025
The ministry of economy, finance and industrial and digital sovereignty (known as Bercy) seen on July 26, 2025. © Hugo Mathy, AFP

The euro zone's second-largest economy is expected to expand by 0.2% in both the first and ‌second quarters, matching the fourth-quarter rate, national statistics office INSEE said on Tuesday in its short-term outlook. ⁠That is down from previous projections of 0.3%.

As the war in Iran roils global energy markets, inflation is forecast to rise above 2% in ​the coming months from 1.1% in February, INSEE said.

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Higher inflation ‌will erode household purchasing power, though price pressures will remain lower than elsewhere in the euro zone due to France's relatively modest wage growth and still-competitive services prices, it said.

Household ‌consumption, traditionally the engine of French growth, is expected to slow at the start of the year as higher fuel ​prices curb spending on energy and transport-related goods, INSEE said.

Purchases of vehicles and oil products are seen falling in the first quarter, while spending on services is ​expected to hold up better before coming under pressure in the spring.

Business investment ​is forecast to be broadly flat early in the year, ​with companies remaining cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and weak demand, INSEE said.

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Father of 35-hour work week passes
Father of 35-hour work week passes © France 24

Foreign trade is seen weighing on growth in ​the first quarter as exports fall sharply due to a temporary drop in aircraft and ship deliveries.

In the second quarter, growth is expected to remain steady as higher inflation begins to have a broader impact. Household consumption is seen edging up slightly as ⁠energy spending normalises, but spending on non-essential goods is expected to ease.

Business investment is forecast to pick ⁠up only modestly, while ​public investment is likely to contract further, leaving the economy reliant on a rebound in exports to offset domestic headwinds.

(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)